Crop Yield Response to Climate Change in East Africa: Comparing Highlands and Lowlands

Climate change will have significant impacts on agriculture, particularly in East Africa where there is such variation in topography and climate. Modelling studies can help to show where these impacts may be largest, to help guide adaptations to ensure food security in the coming decades. Results suggest that crop yield reductions may be expected over 50% to 70% of the area simulated. At the same time, highland areas in parts of the region may see increases in yield potential, which could have a positive impact on householders' incomes and food security in these places. The impacts of projected climate change during the first half of the current century will pose a serious problem for development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and will add burdens to those who are already poor and vulnerable1,2. Many of these impacts will be felt in agriculture, which nevertheless will continue to play a crucial role in SSA through its direct and indirect impacts on poverty, as well as in providing an indispensable platform for wider economic growth that reduces poverty far beyond the rural and agricultural sectors3. There is much activity on the part of development agencies and governments to come to grips with these challenges, including the planning and implementation of appropriate adaptation strategies. Development agencies could greatly benefit from information that quantifies the impacts that may arise, so that development assistance can be targeted in appropriate places, depending on the development objectives that are being pursued. There are still knowledge gaps concerning the interacting and multiple stresses on the vulnerability of the poor in Africa, however. One of these is to understand more about how vulnerable households may be affected by increased climatic variability and climate change, to better understand the implications for poverty reduction as well as to be able to assess adaptation initiatives4,5. Coping with climate variability is certainly not a new problem for African farmers, but existing coping mechanisms may not be up to the challenges that are likely to be faced in the future6. Crop Yield Response to Climate Change in East Africa: Comparing Highlands and Lowlands

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