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Changes in hydrological inputs to the flood-pulsed Okavango Delta result in changes in such flooding characteristics as floodplain water depth, inundation duration and frequency. A mathematical model is used to assess impacts of changing hydrological inputs on flooding in the Okavango Delta. Future conditions are simulated by superimposing simulated abstractions, upstream developments and climate change effects on the observed time series of hydrological inputs. The effects of change in...

Abstract The multi‐year (2015–2017) drought in the South West of the Western Cape (SWC) caused a severe water shortage in the summer of 2017–2018, with damaging impacts on the local and regional economy, and Cape Town being in the news one of the first major cities to potentially run out of water. Here, we assess the links between the rainfall deficits during the drought and (a) large scale circulation patterns, (b) moisture transport, and (c) convective available potential energy (CAPE). We...

Abstract The Southwestern Cape (SWC) region in South Africa experienced a severe rainfall deficit between 2015–2017. The resulting drought caused the City of Cape Town to almost run out of water during the summer of 2017–2018. Using the self-organising maps approach, we identify and classify the synoptic circulation states over Southern Africa known to influence the local climate in the SWC into three groups (dry, intermediate, and wet circulation types) using large ensembles of climate...

Abstract We analyse long‐term (1900–2017) rainfall data in the southern part of the winter rainfall region of southern Africa to understand the spatial patterns of recent and long‐term trends and contextualize the 2015–2017 rainfall anomalies which led to the so‐called “Day Zero” drought in Cape Town. Our analyses reveal cohesive spatial patterns and seasonal differences in rainfall trends across a range of timescales. These suggest that rainfall is subject to regional driving mechanisms,...

Climate-induced food production shocks, like droughts, can cause food shortages and price spikes, leading to food insecurity. In 2007, a synchronous crop failure in Lesotho and South Africa-Lesotho's sole trading partner-led to a period of severe food insecurity in Lesotho. Here, we use extreme event attribution to assess the role of climate change in exacerbating this drought, going on to evaluate sensitivity of synchronous crop failures to climate change and its implications for food...

Climate-induced food production shocks, like droughts, can cause food shortages and price spikes, leading to food insecurity. In 2007, a synchronous crop failure in Lesotho and South Africa-Lesotho's sole trading partner-led to a period of severe food insecurity in Lesotho. Here, we use extreme event attribution to assess the role of climate change in exacerbating this drought, going on to evaluate sensitivity of synchronous crop failures to climate change and its implications for food...

Climate-induced food production shocks, like droughts, can cause food shortages and price spikes, leading to food insecurity. In 2007, a synchronous crop failure in Lesotho and South Africa-Lesotho's sole trading partner-led to a period of severe food insecurity in Lesotho. Here, we use extreme event attribution to assess the role of climate change in exacerbating this drought, going on to evaluate sensitivity of synchronous crop failures to climate change and its implications for food...

Climate-induced food production shocks, like droughts, can cause food shortages and price spikes, leading to food insecurity. In 2007, a synchronous crop failure in Lesotho and South Africa-Lesotho's sole trading partner-led to a period of severe food insecurity in Lesotho. Here, we use extreme event attribution to assess the role of climate change in exacerbating this drought, going on to evaluate sensitivity of synchronous crop failures to climate change and its implications for food...

Chapter published in South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas: Understanding the Social & Environmental Implications of Global Change, pp. 13-25

Drought is a frequent disturbance in many regions of the globe and can have a particularly severe impact on vegetation. Over southern Africa, where drought is a regular occurrence, relatively little is known about how quickly vegetation responds to droughts. We characterized the meteorological drought occurrence in southern Africa from 1981 to 2005 and examined the impacts on vegetation productivity, as derived from satellite data. The spatio-temporal extent and severity of droughts were...

Anthropogenic climate change likely influences the beginning of 2020 growing season's water deficit in parts of southern Africa, with severe consequences to food security. The failure of early (October–December) rains, amidst a multiyear drought, has raised concerns of a potential emerging food security crisis in parts of southern Africa, with an estimated 45 million people at risk of severe food insecurity (WFP (World Food Programme), 2019). Here, we evaluate recent climate data to assess...

<p>The subtropical (south of 15deg.S) southern Africa experienced one of the most severe droughts in the record - accompanied with an exceptional heat wave – during the austral spring (October through December – the first half of the main rainy season) of 2015. The observed surface hydro-meteorological conditions led to substantial socio-economic impacts in the region - with mostly semi-arid climate and high spatial-temporal variability - where...

Abstract Angola has been characterized as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Climate change compounded by existing poverty, a legacy of conflict and other risk factors, currently impede development and are expected to become worse as climate change impacts increase. In this study we analyze the signal of climate change on temperature and rainfall variables for two time periods, 2020–2040 and 2040–2060. The analysis is based on multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model...

There is a growing consensus that anthropogenic climate change is a real phenomenon. There is strong evidence that changes to the hydrological cycle have occurred and will continue to do so in the future. Given our dependence on water resources and ecosystem services associated with the river system, this means it is important that appropriate adaptation strategies are developed. Such policies require information on future behaviour of the climate system and impacts on surface hydrology at...

From October 2020 to early 2023, Eastern Africa experienced five consecutive failed rainy seasons, resulting in the worst drought in 40 years. This led to harvest failures, livestock losses, water scarcity, and conflicts, leaving approximately 4.35 million people in need of humanitarian aid. To understand the role of human-induced climate change in the drought, we analysed rainfall trends and the combined effect of rainfall deficit with high temperatures in the Southern Horn of Africa...