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The climate change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across global, regional and local scales. The most common challenge is that global models do not provide context-specific answers, while scientists and decision makers require data and information about climate change, vulnerability, adaptation, mitigation and impacts at the local scale. The Agricultural Model...
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<title>Abstract</title> This book is a compendium of studies on climate change challenges and adaptations at the farm level, capturing research carried out across the continents of Asia and Africa. Chapter 1 is on the introduction to climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies with rural farm-level perspective. Chapter 2 discusses the analytical framework and methodologies for analysing farm level vulnerability in the region. Chapter 3 examines the trends of climate and extreme...
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Agriculture in the semi-arid regions of West Africa is mainly rain-fed with a large number of smallholder farmers dependent on it for their livelihoods. Farming systems are dominated by cereals and legumes with livestock playing a significant role in the functioning of the systems. In this paper, we use the AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment methods, which include a set of mid-century climate projections, biophysical (Decision Support Systems for Agro-technological Transfer; DSSAT and...
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Abstract Achieving Zimbabwe’s national and international commitments to food systems transformation and climate resilience building is of high priority. Integrated simulation-based research approaches developed under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) are important sources of evidence to guide policy decisions towards sustainable intensification. Through the identification of economically viable, socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable...
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Abstract Decision makers need accurate information to address climate variability and change and accelerate transformation to sustainability. A stakeholder-driven, science-based multi-model approach has been developed and used by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to generate actionable information for adaptation planning processes. For a range of mid-century climate projections—likely to be hotter, drier, and more variable—contrasting future...
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This study provides a unique contribution to improving agricultural systems in the face of changing climate and socio-economic conditions, integratingmulti-modeling research with stakeholder engagement to inform future-oriented decision processes. In areas like semi-aridZimbabwe, rural communities are highly vulnerable to climate variability. Climate risk is not a future issue, but constitutes a current threat to food security, if no improvement actions are taken. This study therefore...
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The climate of Southern Africa is highly variable at most time-scales and follows a pronounced gradient with arid conditions in the west and humid conditions in the east. There is also a marked latitudinal rainfall distribution pattern, with the southern part having a low rainfall index and high variability and the northern part having higher annual rainfall and lower interannual variability (Kandji et al., 2006). Over the last 100 years, temperatures have increased by about 0.5◦C in...
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Agriculture in South Africa sustains about 70% of the region’s population for food, income and employment, playing an important role for food security and the local economy. The focus of the study was the commercial maize farms of the Free State Province given their importance in the National economy. The Regional Integrated Assessment (phase I) was implemented to assess climate change and adaptation that links climate, crops, economic data and tools developed by the Agricultural Model...
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This study evaluates the impacts of climate change and an adaptation strategy on agriculture in the Wami River sub-basin in Tanzania. This study uses the Agricultural Model Improvement and Inter-comparison Project (AgMIP) framework that integrates climate, crops and economic models and data using a novel multi-model approach for impact assessment of agricultural systems under current and future conditions. This study uses five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the...
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The West African Sub-Saharan region (Fig. 1) is home to some 300 million people, with at least 60% engaged in agricultural activity. Climate change is now recognized as a major constraint to development worldwide. While climate change primarily relates to the future, historical trends give evidence of climate change already occurring. Temperature increases of 1 to 1.5◦C have been observed over the last 30 years in West Africa (EPA Ghana, 2001; IPCC, 2007) and there are projections of...
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