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This paper uses quantitative methods to examine the way African farmers have adapted livestock management to the range of climates found across the African continent. The authors use logit analysis to estimate whether farmers adopt livestock. They then use three econometric models to examine which species farmers choose: a primary choice multinomial logit, an optimal portfolio multinomial logit, and a demand system multivariate probit. Comparing the results of the three methods of estimating...

Abstract This article develops a new cross‐sectional methodology that explicitly incorporates adaptation into an analysis of the impacts of climate change. The methodology examines how a farmer will change choices of species and number to adapt to climate. The approach is applied to study Africa, where the impacts of climate change are expected to be the most severe. The results indicate that in warmer places, African farmers switch from beef cattle to more heat‐tolerant goats and sheep. In...

This paper uses a cross-sectional approach to analyze the impacts of climate change on animal husbandry and the way farmers adapt. The study is based on surveys of almost 5000 livestock farmers across ten countries in Africa. A traditional Ricardian regression finds that the livestock net revenues of large farms in Africa are more sensitive to temperature than those of small farms. Cross-sectional analysis also reveals that large farms (but not small farms) have fewer animals per farm in...

This paper develops the structural Ricardian method, a new approach to modeling agricultural performance using cross-sectional evidence, and uses the method to study animal husbandry in Africa. The model is intended to estimate the structure beneath Ricardian results in order to understand how farmers change their behavior in response to climate. A survey of over 5,000 livestock farmers in 10 countries reveals that the selection of species, the net income per animal, and the number of...

This paper analyzes the impact of climate change on animal husbandry in Africa. It regresses the net revenue from raising animals in small and large farms across Africa on climate, soil, and other control variables to test the climate sensitivity of livestock. The study is based on a survey of over 9,000 farmers across 11 countries conducted by the World Bank and the Global Environment Facility. From this dataset, 5,400 farms were found to rely on livestock. The paper develops models to test...

This paper develops a Structural Ricardian model to measure climate change impacts that explicitly models the choice of farm type in African agriculture. This two stage model first estimates the type of farm chosen and then the conditional incomes of each farm type after removing selection biases. The results indicate that increases in temperature encourage farmers to adopt mixed farming and avoid specialized farms such as crop-only or livestock-only farms. Increases in precipitation...

This paper analyzes the impact of climate change on animal husbandry in Africa. It regresses the net revenue from raising animals in small and large farms across Africa on climate, soil, and other control variables to test the climate sensitivity of livestock. The study is based on a survey of over 9,000 farmers across 11 countries conducted by the World Bank and the Global Environment Facility. From this dataset, 5,400 farms were found to rely on livestock. The paper develops models to test...

This paper develops the structural Ricardian method, a new approach to modeling agricultural performance using cross-sectional evidence, and uses the method to study animal husbandry in Africa. The model is intended to estimate the structure beneath Ricardian results in order to understand how farmers change their behavior in response to climate. A survey of over 5,000 livestock farmers in 10 countries reveals that the selection of species, the net income per animal, and the number of...

This paper uses quantitative methods to examine the way African farmers have adapted livestock management to the range of climates found across the African continent. The authors use logit analysis to estimate whether farmers adopt livestock. They then use three econometric models to examine which species farmers choose: a primary choice multinomial logit, an optimal portfolio multinomial logit, and a demand system multivariate probit. Comparing the results of the three methods of estimating...

This paper develops a Structural Ricardian model to measure climate change impacts that explicitly models the choice of farm type in African agriculture. This two stage model first estimates the type of farm chosen and then the conditional incomes of each farm type after removing selection biases. The results indicate that increases in temperature encourage farmers to adopt mixed farming and avoid specialized farms such as crop-only or livestock-only farms. Increases in precipitation...

Abstract This paper examines African livestock management across Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) to learn how they would adapt to climate change in the coming century. We analyze farm level decisions to own livestock and to choose a primary livestock species using logit models with and without country fixed effects or AEZ fixed effects. With a hot dry scenario, the results indicate that livestock ownership will increase slightly across all of Africa, but especially in West Africa and high...

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the sixteen Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Africa. We combine net revenue from livestock and crops and regress total net revenue on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables with and without country fixed effects. Although African crop net revenue is very sensitive to climate change, combined livestock and crop net revenue is more climate resilient. With the hot and dry CCC climate scenario, average damage...

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the six- teen Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Africa. We combine net revenue from livestock and

This paper quantifies how African farmers have adapted their crop and irrigation decisions to their farm's current agro-ecological zone. The results indicate that farmers carefully consider the climate and other conditions of their farm when making these choices. These results are then used to forecast how farmers might change their irrigation and crop choice decisions if climate changes. The model predicts African farmers would adopt irrigation more often under a very hot and dry climate...

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the 16 agro-ecological zones in Africa using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization combined economic survey data from a Global Environment Facility/World Bank project. Net revenue per hectare of cropland is regressed on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables using different econometric specifications with and without country fixed effects. Country fixed effects slightly reduce predicted future...

This paper quantifies how African farmers have adapted their crop and irrigation decisions to their farm's current agro-ecological zone. The results indicate that farmers carefully consider the climate and other conditions of their farm when making these choices. These results are then used to forecast how farmers might change their irrigation and crop choice decisions if climate changes. The model predicts African farmers would adopt irrigation more often under a very hot and dry climate...

Abstract Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of −1.9) and livestock (−5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity...

Abstract Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of −1.9) and livestock (−5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity...

Abstract Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of −1.9) and livestock (−5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity...