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The possible impact of climate change on maize (Zea mays L.) production in Zimbabwe was evaluated simulating crop production under climate scenarios generated by global climate models (GCMs). The baseline climate data for each site also was modified by increasing daily air temperatures by 2 and 4°C for a sensitivity analysis. Temperature increases of 2 and 4°C, reduced maize yields at all sites. Maize yields also decreased under the GCM climate change scenarios, even when the direct...
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Climate change is one of the most widespread anthropogenic challenges affecting agriculture and agricultural production in the coffee agroforestry system, where its impacts on economic growth in general are still issues in debate. An adjustment to the actual or expected changes in the agricultural sector using different innovative adaptation strategies has to be among priorities in policy decisions. Research on sectoral systems of innovation in coffee agroforestry systems, however, has paid...
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Emerging challenges to farming drives farming systems to have three strategies; intensification options optimizing resources and technological innovations, firm diversification orchestrating interdependencies among sectoral boundaries, and transition to new system and trajectories. The intensification in the coffee system is the research supported innovation process to specialize in coffee using new varieties and practices while the second option is diversification to complementary...
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Farmers in Africa are facing climate change and challenging rural livelihoods while maintaining agricultural systems that are not resilient. By 2050 the mean estimates of production of key staple crops in Africa such as maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava are expected to decrease by between 8 and 22 percent (Schlenker and Lobell 2010). In Kenya, although projections of rainfall do not show dramatic decreases, the distribution of impacts is clearly negative for most crops. As...
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Farmers are experiencing the need to adapt to climate change, and are developing different strategies. This article contributes to the understanding of farmers' adaptation choices, their determinants and their implications, in relation to the household income. In 2014, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and 220 household surveys were carried out with farmers in coffee and food crop zones in Central Kenya. The Heckman model was used to evaluate the determinants of adaptation choices and their...
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Abstract. We propose a composite drought vulnerability indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level for four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation, is less...
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Research on sectoral systems of innovation has paid little attention to adaptation to climate change, notably in agriculture. This article, therefore, explores the role of systems of innovation in adapting to climate change. It focuses on two case studies in Kenyan agriculture, i.e. the coffee and dairy sectors, which differ in terms of stakeholders and institutional setups. In the coffee sector, the actors' system is highly centralized and the system of innovation is oriented towards...
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Abstract. Drought vulnerability is a complex concept that includes both biophysical and socio-economic drivers of drought impact that determine capacity to cope with drought. In order to develop an efficient drought early warning system and to be prepared to mitigate upcoming drought events it is important to understand the drought vulnerability of the affected regions. We propose a composite Drought Vulnerability Indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability...
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In the Maghreb and North African regions, the interannual climate variability causes severe impacts on agriculture through long drought episodes. Impacts are expected to increase due to projected climate change. Decreasing water availability will have a direct impact on the agriculture sector and could endanger the socioeconomic development and social stability in Tunisia where rain-fed agriculture represents the main occupancy and means of subsistence for the large rural population.