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<p>The geographical range of agricultural crops is shifting under climate change as crop potential either increase or decrease. In this study, we assess the shifts in crop suitability for six major staple crops (maize, sorghum, millet, rice, cassava and wheat) across Africa by 2050 to understand crop switching and/or diversification as adaptation to climate change. While we observe that climatic suitability for four of the six crops will decrease in Africa, our results show...

Climate change is projected to impact food production stability in many tropical countries through impacts on crop potential. However, without quantitative assessments of where, by how much and to what extent crop production is possible now and under future climatic conditions, efforts to design and implement adaptation strategies under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Action Plans (NAP) are unsystematic. In this study, we used extreme gradient boosting, a machine...

Abstract Crop diversification is a promising climate change adaptation strategy for food production stability. However, without quantitative assessments of where, with which crop mixes and to what extent diversification is possible now and under future climatic conditions, efforts to expand crop diversification under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Action Plans (NAP) are unsystematic. In this study, we used extreme gradient boosting, a machine learning approach to...

Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to be exposed to substantial climate change hazards, especially in its agricultural sector, so adaptation will be necessary to safeguard food security. However, tropical and subtropical maize production regions approach critical temperature thresholds in the growing season already in today’s climate, and climate change might already be contributing to this. Projecting future, and attributing already observed, yield impacts due to anthropogenic...

Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to be exposed to substantial climate change hazards, especially in its agricultural sector, so adaptation will be necessary to safeguard food security. However, tropical and subtropical maize production regions approach critical temperature thresholds in the growing season already in today’s climate, and climate change might already be contributing to this. Projecting future, and attributing already observed, yield impacts due to anthropogenic...

Abstract Understanding the extent and adapting to the impacts of climate change in the agriculture sector in Africa requires robust data on which technical and policy decisions can be based. However, there are no publicly available comprehensive data of which crops are suitable where under current and projected climate conditions for impact assessments and targeted adaptation planning. We developed a dataset on crop suitability of 23 major food crops (eight cereals, six legumes & pulses,...

This study examines the impact of drought on the land ownership rights of smallholder farmers in Uganda. Three waves of the Uganda National Panel Survey are combined with an indicator for drought, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Using a household fixed effects approach, we exploit spatial and temporal variation in drought conditions to identify its effect on households’ self-reported willingness to acquire land ownership rights, both at the extensive and intensive...

Agroforestry is a promising adaptation measure for climate change, especially for low external inputs smallholder maize farming systems. However, due to its long-term nature and heterogeneity across farms and landscapes, it is difficult to quantitatively evaluate its contribution in building the resilience of farming systems to climate change over large areas. In this study, we developed an approach to simulate and emulate the shading, micro-climate regulation and biomass effects of...

Abstract Tropical root and tuber crops such as cocoyam ( Colocasia esculenta (L.)) are important for food security and livelihoods and yet neglected in climate change impact studies and large-scale crop improvement programs. The aim of this study was to apply the maximum entropy modelling approach to assess production potential for the orphan crop cocoyam under current and projected climatic conditions by 2050 and 2070 in Zimbabwe. A robust model fit was achieved (AUC > 0.9) with variable...

Abstract Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered impact on coffee typicities that depend on local microclimatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the impact of climate change on suitability of five premium specialty coffees in Ethiopia. We implement an ensemble model of three machine learning algorithms to predict current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) suitability for each...

Adaptation strategies sustaining agricultural production under climate change are urgently required in Sub-Saharan Africa. To quantify the impacts of different adaptation options in Burkina Faso, this study simulated sorghum yields under current and projected climatic conditions with and without adaptation. We used the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) at 0.5° spatial resolution (around 55 km) and forced the model with two climate change scenarios. Our calibrated...

Southern Africa has been identified as one of the hotspot areas of climate extremes increasing, at the same time many communities in the region are dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which is vulnerable to these rainfall and temperature extremes. The aim of this study is to understand changes in extreme indices during the agricultural season under climate change and how that affect the modeling of maize suitability in Southern Africa. We analyze the changes in rainfall and its extreme...

<div> <p>Agricultural production is highly weather-dependent in sub-Saharan Africa. Under climate change the risk of yield losses increases even further, posing a threat to farmers’ income and livelihood. Despite the availability of a wide range of adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector, information on their suitability at the local scale is limited.</p> <p>In this session, we would like to discuss an example of...

Abstract Assessing vulnerability to climate change and extremes is the first step towards guiding climate change adaptation. It provides the basis to decide ‘what’ adaptation measures are needed ‘where’. Vulnerability which is defined as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, differs spatially and evolves temporally. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the dynamics of vulnerability at sub-national scales to be prepared for and respond to current and future climatic...

Abstract Migration is often considered a form of climate change adaptation by which individuals, households, and communities seek to reduce the risks associated with climate change. In this study, we examine first-time seasonal migration out of a village in North-Western Burkina Faso to neighbouring countries, triggered by more irregular rainfall patterns. Through a set of 52 qualitative interviews, we analyse the perceptions of migrants themselves as well as the sending community regarding...

Climate change and climate extremes increasingly threaten agricultural production and thereby pose a serious risk to agricultural livelihoods, particularly in the Global South. In support of adaptation planning, science-based information on projected climate impacts and sound information on the suitability of adaptation options is needed. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of current and future climate-related risks in Zambia – a country that is highly vulnerable to...