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Integrated scientific assessments of semi-arid agroecosystems with mathematical models are challenging because of computational constraints. These constraints arise from exponentially increasing decision options due to dynamic interactions between the biophysical states of rangeland vegetation and farsighted decisions taken by pastoral stakeholders. This study applies a methodology that integrates these interactions in a computationally feasible manner. We equip a dynamic land use decision...
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In a modeling study we examine vulnerability of income from mobile (transhumant) pastoralism and sedentary pastoralism to reduced mean annual precipitation (MAP) and droughts. The study is based on empirical data of a 3410 km2 research region in southern, semi-arid Morocco. The land use decision model integrates a meta-model of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) simulator to depict perennial and annual forage plant development. It also includes livestock dynamics and...
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Our study links environmental impacts of climate change to major socio-economic and agricultural developments in North Africa. We jointly investigate climate projections, vulnerability, impacts, and options for adaptation. Precipitation in North Africa is likely to decrease between 10 and 20%, while temperatures are likely to rise between 2 and 3 °C by 2050. This trend is most pronounced in the north-western parts of northern Africa as our own model results suggest. The combination of...
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Our study links environmental impacts of climate change to major socio-economic and agricultural developments in North Africa. We jointly investigate climate projections, vulnerability, impacts, and options for adaptation. Precipitation in North Africa is likely to decrease between 10 and 20%, while temperatures are likely to rise between 2 and 3 °C by 2050. This trend is most pronounced in the north-western parts of northern Africa as our own model results suggest. The combination of...
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Our study links environmental impacts of climate change to major socio-economic and agricultural developments in North Africa. We jointly investigate climate projections, vulnerability, impacts, and options for adaptation. Precipitation in North Africa is likely to decrease between 10 and 20%, while temperatures are likely to rise between 2 and 3 °C by 2050. This trend is most pronounced in the north-western parts of northern Africa as our own model results suggest. The combination of...
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Our study links environmental impacts of climate change to major socio-economic and agricultural developments in North Africa. We jointly investigate climate projections, vulnerability, impacts, and options for adaptation. Precipitation in North Africa is likely to decrease between 10 and 20%, while temperatures are likely to rise between 2 and 3 °C by 2050. This trend is most pronounced in the north-western parts of northern Africa as our own model results suggest. The combination of...
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Our study links environmental impacts of climate change to major socio-economic and agricultural developments in North Africa. We jointly investigate climate projections, vulnerability, impacts, and options for adaptation. Precipitation in North Africa is likely to decrease between 10 and 20%, while temperatures are likely to rise between 2 and 3 °C by 2050. This trend is most pronounced in the north-western parts of northern Africa as our own model results suggest. The combination of...
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Our study links environmental impacts of climate change to major socio-economic and agricultural developments in North Africa. We jointly investigate climate projections, vulnerability, impacts, and options for adaptation. Precipitation in North Africa is likely to decrease between 10 and 20%, while temperatures are likely to rise between 2 and 3 °C by 2050. This trend is most pronounced in the north-western parts of northern Africa as our own model results suggest. The combination of...
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This study assesses the predictability of future livelihood strategies of transhumant pastoralists in semi-arid Morocco. A decrease in precipitation due to climate change will likely threaten their traditional livelihood strategy. We examine whether the pastoralists explicitly prefer certain alternative strategies or if their reactions will be contingent. Our analysis uses standardized interviews focussing on two aspects: firstly, which resources are necessary for the pastoralists to be able...