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SUMMARY Land use and land cover changes are driven by human actions and, in turn, drive changes that alter the availability of products and services for people and livestock. For proper planning, these cause-and-effect interrelations need to be understood. This is especially important for Ethiopia where the resource base is declining and should be improved in order to feed the growing population. To better understand these interrelations, we studied trends in the natural resource base over a...

Climate change will impact the productivity of maize-based crop-livestock systems and the food security of smallholders depending on them in semi-arid southern Africa. Earlier results from testing climate change adaptation options showed that incremental improvements in fertilizer application rates, use of adapted maize cultivars or introduction of forage production are insufficient for substantial improvement of smallholder livelihoods (Masikati et al., 2015). In this paper we therefore...

Large uncertainties about the impacts of climate change and adaptation options on the livestock component of heterogeneous African farming systems hamper tailored decision making towards climate-smart agriculture. This study addressed this knowledge gap through the development and use of a dynamic modelling framework integrating climate, crop, pasture and livestock models. The framework was applied to a population of 91 farms located in semi-arid Zimbabwe to assess effects on livestock...

Climate-related variability in crop production and market price variability affect food and income security of Uganda’s rural households. We used household surveys from two contrasting sites in Uganda to quantify the relationships between crop production variability, adaptation strategies and household resource characteristics. Variability of production was large for all crops with almost doubling of yields under good conditions and halving of yields in bad years. Ex-post adaptation...

Climate variability and change are affecting rural livelihoods in Mali today and present a growing challenge in the region, as in many other parts of the African continent. We used a database of long-term (from 1965 to 2005) weather records and crop yields of a field experiment conducted from 1965 to 1993 at the N'Tarla in southern Mali to quantify possible historical changes of climate and their impact on yields of cotton, sorghum, and groundnut. Series of future climate data coupled with...

There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options - planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice - using the crop simulation model, agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM), at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cover both near- and long-term climates. Future climate data under two...

SUMMARY Agricultural production in the Sudano–Sahelian zone of west Africa is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and climate change. The present study aimed to understand farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and change and to evaluate adaptation options together with farmers, including tactical management of planting date in combination with the use of mineral fertilizer. Farmers perceived an increase in annual rainfall variability, an increase in the occurrence...

Rural households in sub-Saharan Africa earn a substantial part of their living from rain-fed smallholder agriculture, which is highly sensitive to climate change. There is a growing number of multi-level assessments on impacts and adaptation options for African smallholder systems under climate change, yet few studies translate impacts at the individual crop level to vulnerability at the household level, at which other livelihood activities need to be considered. Further, these assessments...

Farm systems were re-designed together with farmers during three years (2013–2015) in Southern Mali with the aim to improve income without compromising food self-sufficiency. A cyclical learning model with three steps was used: Step 1 was the co-design of a set of crop/livestock technical options, Step 2 the on-farm testing and appraisal of these options and Step 3 a participatory ex-ante analysis of re-designed farm systems incorporating the tested options. Two iterations of the cycle were...

African mixed crop–livestock systems are vulnerable to climate change and need to adapt in order to improve productivity and sustain people’s livelihoods. These smallholder systems are characterized by high greenhouse gas emission rates, but could play a role in their mitigation. Although the impact of climate change is projected to be large, many uncertainties persist, in particular with respect to impacts on livestock and grazing components, whole-farm dynamics and heterogeneous farm...

African mixed crop–livestock systems are vulnerable to climate change and need to adapt in order to improve productivity and sustain people’s livelihoods. These smallholder systems are characterized by high greenhouse gas emission rates, but could play a role in their mitigation. Although the impact of climate change is projected to be large, many uncertainties persist, in particular with respect to impacts on livestock and grazing components, whole-farm dynamics and heterogeneous farm...

African mixed crop–livestock systems are vulnerable to climate change and need to adapt in order to improve productivity and sustain people’s livelihoods. These smallholder systems are characterized by high greenhouse gas emission rates, but could play a role in their mitigation. Although the impact of climate change is projected to be large, many uncertainties persist, in particular with respect to impacts on livestock and grazing components, whole-farm dynamics and heterogeneous farm...

African mixed crop–livestock systems are vulnerable to climate change and need to adapt in order to improve productivity and sustain people’s livelihoods. These smallholder systems are characterized by high greenhouse gas emission rates, but could play a role in their mitigation. Although the impact of climate change is projected to be large, many uncertainties persist, in particular with respect to impacts on livestock and grazing components, whole-farm dynamics and heterogeneous farm...

African mixed crop–livestock systems are vulnerable to climate change and need to adapt in order to improve productivity and sustain people’s livelihoods. These smallholder systems are characterized by high greenhouse gas emission rates, but could play a role in their mitigation. Although the impact of climate change is projected to be large, many uncertainties persist, in particular with respect to impacts on livestock and grazing components, whole-farm dynamics and heterogeneous farm...

Abstract Achieving Zimbabwe’s national and international commitments to food systems transformation and climate resilience building is of high priority. Integrated simulation-based research approaches developed under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) are important sources of evidence to guide policy decisions towards sustainable intensification. Through the identification of economically viable, socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable...

Abstract Decision makers need accurate information to address climate variability and change and accelerate transformation to sustainability. A stakeholder-driven, science-based multi-model approach has been developed and used by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to generate actionable information for adaptation planning processes. For a range of mid-century climate projections—likely to be hotter, drier, and more variable—contrasting future...