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This chapter details the common biophysical approach used to assess the impact of climate change on local crop production and critiques it to highlight usefulness and limitations in informing climate change response action. The chapter reviews various location-specific climate change impact studies in southern Africa and details their results in the context of the methodologies and tools applied. Ultimately lessons for improvements in future research are drawn. The chapter advocates future...
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Concern over future food security in southern Africa has led to various studies that assess the impact of climate change on crops in the region. The results vary according to applied methods and tools. This study reviewed and consolidated results from 19 recent studies which quantitatively project the impact of climate change on crops for the 21st century in southern Africa. Results were assessed according to crop modelling techniques, which included process-based, statistical and economic...
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Most African countries struggle with food production and food security. These issues are expected to be even more severe in the face of climate change. Our study examines the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture with a view to propose adaptation options, especially in hard hit regions. We use a crop model to evaluate the impact of various sowing decisions on the water satisfaction index (WSI) and thus the yield of maize crop. The crop model is run for 176 stations over southern...
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The future climate is projected to change rapidly with potentially severe consequences for global food security. This study aims to improve the understanding of future changes in the suitability of crop growth conditions. It proposes a definition of crop realization, of the climate departure from recent historical variability, or crop–climate departure. Four statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs): CCCMA, CNRM5, NOAA-GFDL, and MIROC5 performed simulations for...
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Droughts remain a threat to grape yields in South Africa. Previous studies on the impacts of climate on grape yield in the country have focussed on the impact of rainfall and temperature separately; meanwhile, grape yields are affected by drought, which is a combination of rainfall and temperature influences. The present study investigates the impacts of drought on grape yields in the Western Cape (South Africa) at district and farm scales. The study used a new drought index that is based on...
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Pineapple production in Ghana plays a major role in developing the economy through socioeconomic impacts and export. Climatic variations contribute to variable yield and subsequently affect pineapple productivity. Direct dependence on climate for pineapple production could have significant economic implications. This study examined the economic impact of a changing climate on smallholder pineapple farming in Ghana. Data from 400 pineapple farmers was obtained from four pineapple growing...
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Climate change is expected to significantly impact agricultural production across Africa. While a number of studies assessed this impact in semi-arid southern Africa, or tropical West Africa, only a limited number took interest in the mountainous and climatically varying Ethiopia of eastern Africa. This study assesses the impact of climate change on maize production in three representative sites of maize growing areas in Ethiopia. The assessment relies on the DSSAT crop model simulation of...
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Climate change impact assessments on agriculture in Southern Africa are mostly carried out at large spatial scales, risking missing out on local impacts and adaptation potential that reflect the range of multiple and unique bio-physical and agronomic conditions under which farmers in the region operate. This study investigated how climate change may affect yields of various major food crops in specific locations in the region; maize and sorghum (Mohale’s Hoek – Lesotho and Big Bend –...
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The aim of this research is to examine the impact of climate change in maize farmers’ livelihood in Zambezi region, Namibia and benefit of adaptation. Trade-off analysis–multidimensional (TOA-MD) model was presented as a method for evaluation with a combination of simulated baseline production and future simulated yield using Decision Support Systems for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) in maize production system, under five different climate scenarios of Global Circulation...
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Large uncertainties about the impacts of climate change and adaptation options on the livestock component of heterogeneous African farming systems hamper tailored decision making towards climate-smart agriculture. This study addressed this knowledge gap through the development and use of a dynamic modelling framework integrating climate, crop, pasture and livestock models. The framework was applied to a population of 91 farms located in semi-arid Zimbabwe to assess effects on livestock...
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The changing climate is posing significant threats to agriculture, the most vulnerable sector, and the main source of livelihood in West Africa. This study assesses the impact of the climate-departure on the crop suitability and planting month over West Africa. We used 10 CMIP5 Global climate models bias-corrected simulations downscaled by the CORDEX regional climate model, RCA4 to drive the crop suitability model, Ecocrop. We applied the concept of the crop-climate departure (CCD) to...
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The impact of climate-change disasters poses significant challenges for South Africa, especially for vulnerable rural households. In South Africa, the impact of climate change at the local level, especially in rural areas, is not well known. Rural households are generally poor and lack resources to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change, but the extent of their vulnerability is largely not understood. This study looked at the micro-level impact of climate change, evaluated...
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The climate of Southern Africa is highly variable at most time-scales and follows a pronounced gradient with arid conditions in the west and humid conditions in the east. There is also a marked latitudinal rainfall distribution pattern, with the southern part having a low rainfall index and high variability and the northern part having higher annual rainfall and lower interannual variability (Kandji et al., 2006). Over the last 100 years, temperatures have increased by about 0.5◦C in...