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Adaptation of agriculture to climate change requires urgent improvement of our understanding of climate impacts on crop yields, particularly in tropical regions where climate directly threatens food security. However past studies report large uncertainties because of inconsistency between climate scenarios and limited representation of the prevailing cereal production systems. More than six years of trials and surveys in Africa enabled the design of SARRA-H, a process-based crop model able...
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Abstract Studies on climate change can only be conducted on a long time scale, and observing how societies adapt their sowing practices to climate variability is challenging and costly. As an alternative, a space and time substitution design was used, changes in space corresponding to that induced in time by environmental change. On the eastern slope of Mount Kenya, the Tharaka community, originating from the lowlands (750 m), moved up to the midlands (950 m) with their lowland-adapted...
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In the coming decades, the already fragile agricultural system in West Africa will face further challenges in meeting food security, both from increasing population and from the impacts of climate change. Optimal prioritization of adaptation investments requires the assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties; successful adaptations of agriculture to climate change should not only help farmers deal with current climate risks, but also reduce negative (or enhance...
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Food security is a crucial issue in the Sahel and could be endangered by climate change and demographic pressure during the 21st century. Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall induced by global warming are threatening rainfed agriculture in this region while the population is expected to increase approximately three-fold until 2050. Our study quantifies the impact of climate change on food security by combining climate modelling (16 models from CMIP5), crop yield (simulated by...
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Much has been learned in recent years about the nature of climate changes in the West African region, including robust projections of delayed monsoon onset and, in many locations, increased late-season rainfall. t his talk will examine the implications of these changes for crop adaptation strategies. Two process-based crop models ( apsi M and sarra H-H) are used to explore climate change impacts under various management and cultivar scenarios for sorghum, the main crop in the region....
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Food security is a crucial issue in the Sahel and could be endangered by climate change and demographic pressure during the 21st century. Indeed, people in rural areas mainly practice rainfed agriculture for subsistence during the monsoon rainfall season. Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall induced by global warming are threatening food production systems in this region while the population of this region is expected to increase approximately threefold until 2050 according to several...
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Sub-Saharan West Africa is a vulnerable region where a better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields is urgently needed. Here, we have applied the process-based crop model SARRA-H calibrated and validated over multi-year field trials and surveys at eight contrasting sites in terms of climate and agricultural practices in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The model gives a reasonable correlation with observed yields of sorghum and millet under a...
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Sub-Saharan West Africa is a vulnerable region where a better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields is urgently needed. Here, we have applied the process-based crop model SARRA-H calibrated and validated over multi-year field trials and surveys at eight contrasting sites in terms of climate and agricultural practices in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The model gives a reasonable correlation with observed yields of sorghum and millet under a...
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Sub-Saharan West Africa is a vulnerable region where a better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields is urgently needed. Here, we have applied the process-based crop model SARRA-H calibrated and validated over multi-year field trials and surveys at eight contrasting sites in terms of climate and agricultural practices in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The model gives a reasonable correlation with observed yields of sorghum and millet under a...
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Sub-Saharan West Africa is a vulnerable region where a better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields is urgently needed. Here, we have applied the process-based crop model SARRA-H calibrated and validated over multi-year field trials and surveys at eight contrasting sites in terms of climate and agricultural practices in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The model gives a reasonable correlation with observed yields of sorghum and millet under a...
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Abstract Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO 2 ], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize...
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